Ayoon Wa Azan (One Experience is Enough)

The trial of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak began on 3/8/2011, and ended on 22/2/2012. The verdict will be announced in a hundred days, specifically on 2/6/2012, and I do not know whether it will be a guilty or not-guilty verdict, and whether in the case of conviction the sentence would be imprisonment or execution. My work experience has taught me to avoid making speculations, and perhaps one example is enough proof in this regard. Indeed, near the end of 1975, I went to London on a week-long holiday and I was certain by virtue of my contacts at the highest levels that the civil war would end in a few months. But it went on to last 15 years, and the week-long holiday turned into 36 years. And if I dare not speculate on the verdict against one man, who is Hosni Mubarak, then I shall not speculate on the fate of the Arab uprisings. Instead, I go over what has been achieved so far, and where some of the uprisings stand at present. I give the revolution in Tunisia a high passing grade, and the revolution in Tripoli a failing grade, while I find that the revolution in Yemen is teetering on the verge of success, following the regime change that took place with the participation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Then there are Morocco, Jordan and Oman, where no revolutions happened, but opposition and protest movements that led to clear reforms. This is while there was an attempted coup in Bahrain with Iranian instigation, but it ended in failure. The Syrian revolution, meanwhile, is ongoing, but so is the killing, and all I can say today about it is that it will not end quickly. The most important revolution took place in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood has won the lion’s share in the elections for parliament and the Shura council. Moreover, the winning presidential candidate would no doubt have to be an ally or someone who is affiliated with the group, before he or she can ensure victory. My visit to Cairo a few days ago allowed me to meet leaders from the Muslim Brotherhood, known politicians and youths from the revolution, and I found in what I heard from them reasons to be optimistic about the future, reasons that have dismissed my perennial anxiety. Egypt is the largest and most important Arab country politically. It is the cornerstone of the Arab superstructure where the eastern part of the nation meets its western part. Therefore, the success of the Egyptian revolution is crucial for the success of the other Arab revolutions in following the Egyptian example. In the meantime, I find many reasons to be optimistic about some Arab countries, and many reasons to worry about others. Tunisia saw elections where the Islamists have won. They are enlightened and they want to build an Islamic democracy that can accommodate all the spectrums of society, and I believe them, despite the fact that I know that there is also in Tunisia an extremist fundamentalist minority whom we heard publicly calling for a fanatical system of government and attacking the director of television station and also challenging university students. On the other hand, Libya underwent a revolution that culminated with the ouster of Gaddafi and his murder after he was brutally tortured. Today, there is a weak transitional National Council and a people where every citizen who can carry arms does. I read that there are nearly 500 militias, rampant corruption, crimes, abductions and torture, in the absence of a capable police force or a clear rule of law. So I do not understand how the parliamentary elections will be held on schedule in June. The situation in Sudan is equally bad, without there being a revolution. For one thing, the country was partitioned into two states seven months ago or so. Meanwhile, there is fighting or threats of war between the North and the South on a daily basis, with 1,600 km-long borders around which most of the two countries’ oil is located. The North was impoverished quickly after the secession, as 75 percent of the country’s oil lies in the South. Yet the pipelines head north, further complicating the situation. And as though this is all not enough, there are massacres taking place between tribes in the South; in truth, the prominent U.S. journalist Nicholas Kristof visited the Nuba Mountains and painted a bleak picture of the poverty, hunger and despondency there. Kuwait was spared from the wave of Arab uprisings, but not from their negative effects: The elections of February 2nd were a setback for democracy, with the victory of Islamist opposition groups including radical extremists. In addition, while the previous parliament had seen four women MPs win, in the recent elections, where 400 thousand voted and 280 candidates ran, not a single woman one, and not a single woman was appointed in the new government formed by Sheikh Jaber Al-Hamad Al-Sabah. Today, all I can say is that if the verdict against one man was postponed for a hundred days, then I choose to postpone my judgment of the Arab revolutions for one thousand days.