Ayoon Wa Azan (Difficult ... But Not Impossible)

Today, Egypt is celebrating the first anniversary of the youth revolution. There are both signs that encourage one to be optimistic, including the fact that fair and free elections were held, perhaps for the first time in 60 years, and negative signs such as the fact that the youths of the revolution seem to have come out of the revolution rather empty-handed. The Muslim Brotherhood won about 50 percent of 498 seats in the Parliament, followed by the Salafis with 20 percent of the seats. This means that the Islamists now dominate two-third of the Egyptian Parliament. This would be cause for concern for the future of freedoms in Egypt, were it not for the fact that the Brotherhood has public quarrels with the An-Nour Salafi Party. It is therefore likely that the Brotherhood will enter instead into an alliance with Al-Wafd, the party that came third in the elections. To appreciate the magnitude of this democratic achievement, it is sufficient to consider the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood have been politically marginalized since 1952 and even before. In 2005, they won 20 percent of the seats after running as independents, and they would have definitely won additional seats. But the third round of those elections ended without them winning a single seat, since the government had decided that they had won enough seats already. However, the government came to regret the results of the 2005 elections, and we saw the Muslim Brotherhood without a single seat in Parliament after the elections of November 2010. Indeed, rigging those elections was one of the sparks that ignited the revolution. The Muslim Brotherhood are skilled players in the political game. The fact that they have distanced themselves from An-Nour is but evidence of their good judgment of affairs. Further, their leaders speak of popular demands and not of imposing Sharia, and they want to reduce the prices of foodstuffs and collect tax in a fairer manner, because the wealthy who are close to the previous regime had evaded payment of taxes in the billions of dollars. The Brotherhood said that they will maintain the international agreements to which Egypt has committed itself to. We also know that the U.S. administration had opened channels of dialogue with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and that the Deputy Secretary of State Richard Burns has met with them in Cairo. I saw it fit to begin with the positive democratic developments and focus on them, because the negative aspects are more prominent, and they worry me as an Arab citizen to whom Egypt and its people are a big part of his life. The youth revolution lasted 18 days, but we don’t want Egypt to have to pay the price for it over 18 years, before reaping some of its fruits. The youths got nothing in the elections, and are even being subjected to the same things they were subjected to with every former regime, and not just the Mubarak regime. Hitting the protesters in their eyes is worse than “the Battle of the Camel”, and so are the ongoing arrests, torture, and the loss of freedoms, as well as the right to assembly and speech and the oppression of women. The worst thing about the continuation of this situation is that it is possible to rectify it with a simple decision. Therefore, the Military Council is responsible, and its men can act as soon as tomorrow if they wish, to stop military trials of civilians, lift the state of emergency and abolish the emergency law itself. If they wish, they can stop harassing civil human rights organizations that receive foreign support, including 40 million dollars per year from the United States (the fascist Israeli government is now working on laws targeting local peace groups and are trying to bar them from accepting foreign funding). The above is all within the realm of the possible, but what remains difficult is the condition of the Egyptian economy, which almost falls under the impossible. Every day, I read about the problems of this economy in the Western press and think tanks, even more so than I read about it in the Egyptian media. Egyptian reserves fell from 36 billion dollars before the revolution to ten billion dollars, which is insufficient to fund imports of just two months. The Military Council is currently negotiating with the IMF to secure a loan of 3.2 billion dollars that the Egyptian side itself had rejected last spring. Foreign investments have fled the country and no new investments have since come. There is pressure on the Egyptian pound, a shortage in fuel which may rise further in price, and the tourism sector is faltering. Calamities do not come individually, as the French say. Egypt will not stand back on her feet, and will not be a role model, unless the Egyptian economy recovers. This is difficult indeed, but not impossible. The Muslim Brotherhood, who will have the lion’s share in the government, are aware of the magnitude of the economic crisis, so perhaps they will succeed in addressing this problem to guarantee reelection five years from now. Be optimistic in good tidings, and they shall come.