The Bank of England on Thursday hinted at an interest rate rise in the coming months as a Brexit-hit weak pound sent inflation soaring.
Policymakers voted 7-2 to hold the BoE’s main rate at a record-low 0.25 percent — and unanimously to leave unchanged the level of cash pumping around the UK economy to help boost growth — the minutes from a regular meeting Wednesday showed.
Two members felt that a quarter-point hike should occur immediately, against a backdrop of the annual British inflation rate surging to 2.9 percent in August from 2.6 percent in July.
Analysts remarked that despite no change to the rate at September’s meeting, the tone of the minutes indicated that the BoE was readying for a rate rise — in a policy that would mirror monetary tightening in the euro zone and United States in response to firmer economic growth.
Paul Hollingsworth, economist at Capital Economics research group, said “It is clear that the majority of members are reluctant to begin normalizing monetary policy until there are some clearer signs of a pick-up in underlying inflation, including faster wage growth.”
He added: “Nonetheless, the minutes struck a considerably more hawkish tone than in August in suggesting that ‘some withdrawal of monetary stimulus is likely to be appropriate over the coming months in order to return inflation sustainably to its (2.0 percent) target’.”
The tone of the minutes resulted in the pound jumping above $1.30.
British inflation has risen sharply in recent months as a Brexit-hit pound raises import costs.
“There remain considerable risks to the outlook, which include the response of households, businesses and financial markets to developments related to the process of EU withdrawal,” the minutes added.
While overall inflation is on the rise, wage growth in Britain has stalled, offsetting official data this week showing that the UK unemployment rate has fallen to a new 42-year low.
The jobless figure dropped to 4.3 percent in the quarter through to the end of July, reaching the lowest level since 1975, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.
Despite the strong jobs growth, there is concern that weak wages growth is starting to hurt consumption, making it difficult for the BoE to rush through interest-rate tightening that would boost savers but weigh on borrowers.
In the United States, Federal Reserve policymakers have twice raised rates in 2017 but a third rate hike this year is seen as increasingly unlikely because inflation has failed to rise fast enough despite persistent jobs growth.
Meanwhile in the euro zone, the European Central Bank left interest rates and its mass bond-buying stimulus program unchanged last week.
ECB President Mario Draghi said its governors would decide in October on the next steps for their “quantitative easing” program, which is slated to expire at the end of the year.