Romney faces steep climb with Virginia women

Polls have shown Romney, the Republican presidential nominee, narrowing the gender gap nationally since a debate earlier this year over women's reproductive rights that included the ultrasound battle in this key swing state. But he continues to struggle with women in Virginia. A Quinnipiac University poll released June 7 shows the former Massachusetts governor trailing the president by 5 percentage points in Virginia, due in part to a 16-point disadvantage among female voters. That follows a May 3 Washington Post poll, which shows an 18-point Romney deficit among women here. By comparison, a nationwide Washington Post-ABC poll released May 22 showed Obama's advantage with women at only 7 percentage points, highlighting the more pronounced difference in Virginia. "There will be a gender gap in the fall," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter based in Washington. "The question is: How big is it?" Rothenberg noted that most polls show Romney leading among men, although by far too narrow a margin to offset his liability with women. And Romney's problem with women is more specific: While he fares well among white women — leading in the most recent poll by 8 points in Virginia — his deficit among minorities is overwhelming. According to the June Quinnipiac poll, Obama leads Romney in Virginia 82-10 among black voters. With black women, the president's advantage is even greater — 85-6. Similarly, the May 3 Post poll shows Romney trailing 86-12 among all minority voters and 86-11 among non-white women. Both of those differences are larger than national figures, which show the non-white Romney vote at closer to 20 percent. "It's probably because he seems very upper class and has limited exposure to the real world," said Sherry Easter, an African-American Hanover County resident. Easter said Romney would be well-served "making more of a concerted effort to have some contact with groups he doesn't know anything about who are not in that upper echelon." She added: "From what I've seen on TV, his idea of being more down to earth seems to be putting on a pair of jeans." National exit polling from 2008 showed Obama defeating John McCain by 13 percentage points among women and by 1 point among men. In Virginia, Obama posted a 7-point advantage among women, according to 2008 exit polling from The New York Times. The difference now, said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, is that Obama is not likely to fare as well among men, especially white men, making his advantage among women and minorities all the more important. Working in Obama's favor, and helping to explain the statistics, said Sabato, is Virginia's burgeoning minority population. "It's grown enormously when you add up African-Americans, Hispanics, Asian-Americans and other groups," he said. "And we haven't been static the past four years. Virginia actually has a population now that is more minority and probably pro-Obama than the original population that elected him in 2008." Romney's numbers could also be the hangover from a particularly combative General Assembly session. The state was vaulted into the national spotlight by a series of highly contentious battles over women's rights issues, including a bill mandating ultrasounds before abortions. The legislation ultimately passed after it was amended to remove a provision that would have required transvaginal ultrasounds. Some political observers suggest that the lingering effects could be in large part responsible for Romney's woes with Virginia women. "There's no question," said Sabato, adding that he continues to hear from disgusted women — including moderate Republicans — everywhere he goes. "The Republicans have to hope that people forget, but the Democrats' job is to make sure that they don't," he added, noting that the word "transvaginal" is "just made-to-order for TV ads." The session's legacy could also help explain why Virginia polls indicate Gov. Bob McDonnell — a popular governor who has been closely tied to the ultrasound bill — does nothing to help Romney gain ground when added as a hypothetical vice-presidential pick. Seeking to grow their advantage, Democrats have hammered on Romney and McDonnell for months. Meanwhile, Obama's re-election team in Virginia has focused on women voters at the grass-roots level. For example, it marked the second anniversary of the federal health care law with a series of efforts across the state, including women-to-women phone banking and the launch of Nurses for Obama. And Romney's own comments have become fodder for a women-focused TV ad running in Northern Virginia, funded by the Planned Parenthood Action Fund. The ad, backed by a $1.4 million buy, seizes on Romney's position that Roe v. Wade should be overturned and shows a clip of a TV interview during which Romney says he would "get rid of" Planned Parenthood. Romney made the comment during an interview with a Missouri TV reporter when asked about the federal deficit and what programs he would cut or reduce, apparently referring to pulling the organization's federal funding. Del. Barbara J. Comstock, R-Fairfax, a co-chair for Romney's Virginia campaign, chalked up the polling gender gap in Virginia to Romney's lack of presence in the state to date, suggesting the numbers would change in coming months. "We're going to have a much bigger presence here," she said, adding that efforts are under way to reach out to women and minorities, especially in Northern Virginia. "A lot of people in Virginia don't know Mitt Romney yet." If anything could dampen Obama's advantage, it's the economy. Rothenberg said he expects Romney's deficit to narrow as November nears, but said nothing would accelerate that trend more than disappointing jobs reports, like April's. The economy and a change in the nation's foreign policy are already at the forefront for Linda Dickerson, of Glen Allen, who is backing Romney. "I think the economy has got to be on the top of the list," she said. "I don't think that's a women's issue, a man's issue, it's across the board — it's across the country." Conversely, Rothenberg said that if the economy looks to be improving, "voters will be less inclined to punish the president, and women voters may look to other differences that separate the two candidates and their parties." Brenda Stanley of Chesterfield County is undecided and says she probably won't make up her mind until October, aided by the debates. She considers herself middle-income and said, "I like what Obama's thinking about doing and getting rid of some of the tax breaks for the richer people and making us all pay our fair share of whatever we get." As for Romney, she'd like to learn more about his business record. While Romney has work to do prying minority women from Obama, subgroups of female voters in Virginia remain nearly equally devoted to the president. Women with college degrees, for example, prefer Obama to Romney by 56 percent to 34 percent, according to this month's Quinnipiac poll. The president also fares exceptionally well among single women and women with an annual household income of more than $100,000 a year, leading 60-33. "It's a barbell effect," Sabato said. "The well-educated, high-income women are inclined to be Democratic because they study the issues and they tend to agree with the Democrats, particularly on social issues. The other end of the barbell is less well-educated, lower-income women who tend to be Democratic because they are economically disadvantaged." He added: "In-between, you have middle-income, married women with children, who are the ones who tend to vote Republican." Asked Friday about Romney's gender gap in Virginia, McDonnell did not seem overly concerned, saying there are months to go before the election to define what each candidate stands for. He said voters across the state — particularly women — seem concerned with "financial security and stability, and this president created just the opposite," adding that he thinks women and mothers are concerned about their jobs and the jobs their children will have. "The more Mitt Romney can talk about how he's going to open up the American dream to more young people when they get out of high school or college, then the better he does with women and with men," he said.